Contact: Jenesse Miller, (213) 810-8554 or jenessem@usc.edu
Holding a primary: What could go wrong?
“This primary season has been an opportunity to witness what can go wrong if states fail to adequately make preparations for holding elections in the time of Coronavirus. Heading into November, states can learn from the missteps that occurred in Ohio and Wisconsin, both of which ran into significant difficulties while trying to hold elections during these challenging times.
“All states have to start planning now for some mix of in-person and mail-in balloting for this fall, planning that must start now if all voters are going to be able to exercise the right to vote without jeopardizing their health.”
Franita Tolson is Vice Dean for Faculty and Academic Affairs, and professor of law at the USC Gould School of Law. Her election podcast is Free and Fair with Franita and Foley.
Contact: ftolson@law.usc.edu
Conventions and fireside chats go virtual
“We’re going to see a campaign unlike any we’ve ever seen.
“I think Trump may push very, very hard, no matter what the public health implications are, for a convention in August. And I think that could backfire.
“Because of the virtual world we live in, we may have a virtual convention, and then we may have a virtual campaign. That’s going to put a premium on a whole different kind of rhetoric. Think FDR’s fireside chats; JFK’s speeches on civil rights, Cuba and the economy; Ronald Reagan’s Oval Office addresses. I think Joe Biden can do that pretty well. I think it is the format least suited to Donald Trump.”
Robert Shrum is the director of the Center for the Political Future at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and a former political strategist and consultant.
Contact: (202) 338-1812 or shrum@usc.edu
Trump and Biden face hurdles within their own parties
“What do we know about democratic behaviors and public engagement forces now at work? First, elections are a binary choice. Joe Biden’s policy moves to the left may not be enough to break through to college students who supported Bernie Sanders. They’re distracted by remote coursework, the need to move home and the worst internships and job prospects in decades. Expect this year’s campaign messages to focus solely on whether you believe President Trump has done a competent job.
“Second, the opposite of love is not hate, but indifference. Has the former Republican establishment learned the lesson to not give up too soon? The 2016 ‘Never Trumpers’ and wobbly Senate impeachment jurors haven’t shown much stamina against the MAGA machine.
“Expect the outcome of the 2020 Election to be determined by the tenacity of former Republican leaders to stay in the fight against the incumbent.”
Dora Kingsley Vertenten is a professor at the USC Price School of Public Policy and an expert in political consulting, election campaigns, political parties and social media.
Contact: kingsley@usc.edu
Who has the right message for voters?
“There are plenty of voters in Trump’s America, who happened to be very favorably placed in the Electoral College, who hear Trump saying, ‘We’re going to be fine; it’s going to come roaring back; there are great new drugs, fabulous drugs, miracle drugs, it’s magnificent.’ And a lot of the Democratic message has been, ‘It’s the end of the world.’
“Some have been accused of rooting for the country to fail to hurt Donald Trump politically. That is very dangerous rocket fuel for Republican resentment voters that like Trump, and they’re in the right places. Ultimately I think Trump is in trouble and will probably lose, but this is not a slam dunk for Democrats. There’s more risk than increasingly overconfident Democrats think.”
Mike Murphy is the co-director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. He has led more than 20 statewide campaigns to victory and worked on six Republican presidential campaigns.
Contact: hburke@usc.edu
What the future may hold for democracy
“The need to protect public health has fueled the call for states to relax restrictions around voting by mail and ensure all U.S. voters have the option to vote by mail in November. However, at the same time, [our research] has shown that also maintaining an accessible in-person voting option in some form will be critical to ensuring the voters who want to or need to vote in person will not be disenfranchised.
“This crisis will undoubtedly bring shifts in how our democracy functions. As we rebuild from the devastating impact of the coronavirus, we must seek ways to purposely build better versions of our democratic institutions where participation is high, public trust is cultivated and all groups are meaningfully incorporated into the decision making process.”
Mindy Romero is the director of the California Civic Engagement Project at the USC Price School of Public Policy. Her research focuses on political behavior and race/ethnicity. These comments are excerpted from a piece she wrote for CalMatters.
Contact: (530) 665-3010 or msromero@usc.edu
Coronavirus and Trump will dominate election coverage
“The biggest complaint about press coverage during most presidential election years is that it focuses too much on the horse race of who is ahead in the polls on any given day, rather than the issues. Now, the pandemic is likely to dominate the coverage for the foreseeable future. It’s hard to imagine reporters delving into past issues such as Ukraine and impeachment.
“But there is one issue which has been in the forefront for some time which has taken on a new urgency, and that is health care. And with the government coming to the rescue of small business owners and the unemployed, it’s doubtful the GOP will be trying to paint Joe Biden as a socialist. The real dilemma for journalists is how to fairly report on Biden’s campaign since it is likely to be a video-only campaign for some time, while President Trump continues to dominate the news through his tweets and briefings.”
Judy Muller is Professor Emeritus at the USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism and an Emmy Award-winning TV correspondent and NPR commentator.
Contact: jmmuller@usc.edu
