By hefty margins, California voters favor raising sales taxes and taxes on wealthier citizens if the money would go to public schools, community colleges and public safety, according to the latest USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences/Los Angeles Times Poll.
Californians were split on whether to tackle the state’s $9 billion budget deficit through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, or through spending cuts alone. Forty-nine percent of voters preferred a combination approach, while 45 percent of voters said taxes in California are already too high and the budget should be balanced by cutting from government programs.
When asked about specific proposals, Californians by large margins supported proposals including sales tax hikes and higher income taxes for wealthier citizens — not only millionaires, but also those making more than $250,000 a year.
Sixty-four percent of California voters said they would support an initiative — similar to a compromise ballot measure reached by Gov. Jerry Brown and the California Federation of Teachers — to increase the state sales tax by a quarter of a cent for four years if the money were used to support public schools, community colleges, services for children and older adults, and local public safety. The proposal also includes higher state income taxes for seven years for those earning more than $250,000 annually, gradually increasing to a three-point rate increase for those earning more than $500,000 a year. Thirty-three percent opposed the measure.
Video of USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Poll Director Dan Schnur and Times reporter Anthony York discussing the poll results:
“Philosophically, voters are divided between spending cuts and taxes, but they support tax increases as long as they fall on other people, whether it is the rich or smokers. While Democrats will highlight the popular ‘tax the rich’ argument, Republicans should remind Californians that the sales tax will hurt all Californians and harm an already weak economy,” says Linda DiVall, CEO of American Viewpoint, the Republican polling firm that conducted the poll with Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on behalf of USC and the Los Angeles Times.
“This is still a state seared by the economy and budget battles, and still divided quite evenly on whether spending cuts have to be mixed with tax increases or whether the state should depend only on spending cuts,” says Stan Greenberg, CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. “However, the governor seems to read the public right in the proposals he presents that propose tax increases on the state’s top earners. He wins two-thirds support for these ideas and is well positioned for this public debate. The public caution on taxes means he will have to be vigilant in making the case, but there is broad receptivity.”
Independent voters, who would be crucial to any passage of a ballot initiative in November, were strongly in favor of the proposal combining a sales tax increase and income tax increases to protect public education and other services. Seventy-five percent of independent voters supported the revised initiative, and 23 percent opposed it. The initiative would seek to raise up to $7 billion with a lower sales tax hike than in Brown’s original plan — a quarter of a cent increase instead of a half cent — and a larger income tax increase on those earning more than $250,000 a year.
By party, Democratic voters support the proposal 80 to 16. Among Republican voters, 38 percent support the proposed tax measure and 61 percent oppose it.
Seventy-nine percent of Latino voters support the proposal, along with 60 percent of white voters. Seventeen percent of Latino voters and 39 percent of white voters oppose the proposal.
“Jerry Brown may have pulled off a coup,” says Schnur, who is director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC. “By convincing the teachers to drop their initiative, he ends up with a compromise that still draws big levels of support. It’s not easy to convince voters to pass a tax increase, but if he can convince the state business community not to oppose his new measure, he could get it through.”
Californians were strongly opposed to raising income taxes across the board, with a strong majority opposing a proposal that would raise taxes on everyone earning more than $7,000 a year for 12 years, raising up to $11 billion for public schools, early childhood programs and the paying down of state debt. Sixty-four percent of voters opposed this proposal, which mirrors an initiative backed by attorney Molly Munger, and 32 percent supported it.
By a large margin, 68 percent of voters support raising taxes on cigarettes by a dollar to help pay for cancer research and law enforcement, and 29 percent opposed a new cigarette tax.
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